{"id":5278,"date":"2020-02-20T11:39:37","date_gmt":"2020-02-20T11:39:37","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/blog.uk.tdk-lambda.com\/uk\/?p=5278"},"modified":"2020-02-20T11:39:39","modified_gmt":"2020-02-20T11:39:39","slug":"mtbf-is-it-a-prediction-of-a-power-supplys-operating-life","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/blog.uk.tdk-lambda.com\/uk\/2020\/02\/20\/mtbf-is-it-a-prediction-of-a-power-supplys-operating-life\/","title":{"rendered":"MTBF \u2013 is it a prediction of a power supply&#8217;s operating life?"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The definition of MTBF is\noften open to misinterpretation. MTBF, or mean time <em>between<\/em> failures, is not a prediction of product or system\noperating life. Instead, it is a prediction of time between\nsuccessive failures during normal operation. This is particularly relevant for\na system or product that is likely to be repaired and returned into service &#8211;\nthe economic cost of returning and repairing many low-cost power supplies,\nhowever, precludes this.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">To calculate the predicted\nnumber, a standard database is used that defines the failure rate of each part\nused in the system. The MTBF number is then calculated, which is the inverse of\nthe sum of all the part failure rates. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em>MTBF = 1 \/ sum of all\npart failures<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The greater the number of\nparts, the lower the MTBF number will be. One thing to bear in mind, it only\napplies to the portion of a part\u2019s entire life where the failure rate is stable.\nThis reliability can be best illustrated using the bathtub curve (see Figure 1),\nwhich has three distinct time periods.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\"><figure class=\"aligncenter size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"620\" height=\"316\" src=\"https:\/\/blog.uk.tdk-lambda.com\/uk\/files\/2020\/02\/LA007009-typical-batchtub-curve-1.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-5279\" srcset=\"https:\/\/tdklambdablog.wpenginepowered.com\/uk\/files\/2020\/02\/LA007009-typical-batchtub-curve-1.jpg 620w, https:\/\/tdklambdablog.wpenginepowered.com\/uk\/files\/2020\/02\/LA007009-typical-batchtub-curve-1-300x153.jpg 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 620px) 100vw, 620px\" \/><figcaption> Figure 1: Reliability bathtub curve<\/figcaption><\/figure><\/div>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">During initial deployment, there\nis a certain number of early failures, also known as \u2018infant failures\u2019, which\ndecrease rapidly over time. Mitigation of these early failures can be achieved\nby having a robust design process with staged reviews and thorough auditing of\nall new component suppliers. Throughout the process detailed component\nevaluation is crucial for new technologies, new package types and all\nelectrolytic capacitor series. Furthermore, comprehensive test and screening\nprocedures during the manufacturing process also identify infant failures.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">After the initial failures have\noccurred there is a period of stability. This is the product\u2019s useful life,\nwhere only random failures will occur. Here, the rate of these failures is\npredictable and it is here where the MTBF number applies. In the third period,\nfailures will start to increase as parts age, and the wear-out stage begins.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Random failures during the\nuseful life period are described by the exponential distribution where \u03bb =\nFailure rate and R(t) = Reliability expectation as a function of time.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">R(t) = e<sup>\u2013<\/sup><sup>\u05d2<\/sup><sup>t<\/sup> = e<sup>\u2013t<\/sup> <sup>\/&nbsp;\nMTBF<\/sup><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">When time (t) reaches the\nMTBF number:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">R(t) = e <sup>\u2013t<\/sup> <sup>\/&nbsp; MTBF<\/sup> = e<sup>-1<\/sup>&nbsp; = 0.368 (36.8%)<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">R(t), the reliability\nexpectation as a function of time, is 37%. In other words, at the calculated MTBF\nnumber only 37% of the parts are expected to still be working. So, if the\ncalculated MTBF for an AC-DC power supply is 300,000 hours, there is only a 37%\nprobability that the product will last 300,000 hours. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Available MTBF databases<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">There are a number of prediction standards available. When comparing two products, it is essential to ensure that the same standards and conditions are used. Below is a listing of some of the most widely used:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\"><figure class=\"aligncenter size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"924\" height=\"762\" src=\"https:\/\/blog.uk.tdk-lambda.com\/uk\/files\/2020\/02\/MTBF-image-2.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-5280\" srcset=\"https:\/\/tdklambdablog.wpenginepowered.com\/uk\/files\/2020\/02\/MTBF-image-2.jpg 924w, https:\/\/tdklambdablog.wpenginepowered.com\/uk\/files\/2020\/02\/MTBF-image-2-300x247.jpg 300w, https:\/\/tdklambdablog.wpenginepowered.com\/uk\/files\/2020\/02\/MTBF-image-2-768x633.jpg 768w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 924px) 100vw, 924px\" \/><\/figure><\/div>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Using TDK-Lambda\u2019s RWS150-B industrial\npower supply as an example, the calculated numbers are as follows:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">RCR-9102&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 444,089\nhours<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">RCR-9102B&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 218,172 hours<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Telcordia&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 2,235,743 hours Ta=25\u00b0C<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Telcordia &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 1,063,230 hours Ta=40\u00b0C<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Note that there is a 10-fold\ndifference between RCR-9102B and Telcordia, and more than a 2-fold difference between\nRCR-9102 and RCR-9102B.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>MTBF predictions versus\nelectrolytic capacitor lifetime<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The most life-limiting component\nof a power supply is usually the electrolytic capacitor. Capacitor\nmanufacturers will give curves on their datasheets that depict life against\ntemperature.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Telcordia gives an MTBF\nfigure of 36,000,000 hours for an electrolytic capacitor with a case\ntemperature of 105\u00b0C. However, using the manufacturer\u2019s life curves, the data may\nindicate less than 10,000 hours at 105\u00b0C. Obviously, the MTBF number is not a\nguarantee of product lifetime.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>MTBF predictions versus\nreality for the power supply<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">In this case we will take a (repairable)\npower supply with an MTBF number of 500,000 hours. Calculating the probability\nof the product failing in 3 years, we get 4.9%. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Reliability = e<sup>-t\/MTBF<\/sup><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">t = 3 years = ~\n25,000 hours<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">MTBF is 500,000\nhours<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Therefore, t\/MTBF\n= 0.05<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Reliability = e<sup>-0.05<\/sup>\n= 95.1 (4.9% failure rate)<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">A company following the\nelectronics industry\u2019s best practises will see less than a 0.25% return rate\nover 5 years.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>In summary<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">MTBF predictions refer to a\nproduct that is repairable and can be returned to the field until the wear-out\nstage is reached. The calculations try to predict the product failure rate.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">It can be used to compare\none product against another, provided the same calculation method is used.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">It has been demonstrated\nthat calculated failure rates are not a measure of the expected power supply field\nlife. Most power supply manufacturers, however, do provide their electrolytic\ncapacitor life data. Ensure that the data covers the worst-case part and that\nthe measuring conditions reflect how the power supply will be cooled.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>The definition of MTBF is often open to misinterpretation. MTBF, or mean time between failures, is not a prediction of product or system operating life. Instead, it is a prediction of time between successive failures during normal operation. This is particularly relevant for a system or product that is likely to be repaired and returned [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":8,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-5278","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-power-supply-basics"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.5 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Is MTBF a useful metric for predicting a power supply&#039;s operating life?<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"MTBF is often misinterpreted. 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